Nova Scotia PC win linked to overall Liberal unpopularity: political scientist

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is celebrating his second consecutive majority mandate after winning the 2024 provincial election with 43 seats, up from 34.

“Tonight, they have sent us a message, and I received that message, and that message is loud and clear: ‘Keep going’”, Houston told an excited crowd of supporters on Tuesday night.

According to political science professor Jeff MacLeod, it’s not difficult to figure out what has happened to Liberals, not just in Nova Scotia but in other parts of Canada.

The election result could be construed as an indication of how far the Liberal party has fallen in the province. The Liberals are now in third place with just two seats, losing official opposition status to the NDP.

“The Liberal brand, or image if you will, collapsed entirely,” said MacLeod. “And I think they were successfully linked by their opponents to the federal Trudeau Liberals.”

Premier Houston campaigned on pro-business issues, tax policy, healthcare and affordability. At a time when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax is unpopular, Houston countered with a promise to abolish Halifax bridge tolls and parking fees at healthcare facilities.

“I guess that will be the standard from which he’ll be judged, if he keeps those promises,” said MacLeod. “Gimmicks in politics are not uncommon and this may be meaningful to some people, and it may make a difference.”

Like Nova Scotian Catherine Legary, who voted for the Progressive Conservatives based on the promise of free hospital parking.

“It’s great because I live outside the city, and I also have to park and I have a lot of health problems,” she said.

There are examples of the Liberals losing support in several provinces across the country but there is one notable, recent exception. According to MacLeod, New Brunswick Liberal Premier Susan Holt’s majority win in October was a masterclass in strategically separating her party from the national Liberal brand.

“Don’t let the opposition parties define you and link you to something you don’t want to be,” said MacLeod of Holt’s strategy and ultimately her victory. “That’s the art of politics and she was able to make a case. ‘Vote for me, I’m not the federal liberals.’”

MacLeod added that it could be a model for other provincial Liberal parties to follow until the federal Liberals become more popular.