Joanne Paulson: How new governments may affect Saskatoon housing

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Three down, one to go.

Saskatchewan’s provincial and municipal elections, as well as the U.S. election, are in the bag. Coming soon to a ballot box near you: Canada’s federal choice.

Our governments can profoundly affect housing markets through policy. However, other governments and market conditions, due to pandemic, inflation, immigration, war and climate change, to name a few, create the environment to which they must react.

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Those conditions have contributed to our still very tight housing market.

In October, Saskatoon had a record-high 444 sales, up 17 per cent from last October and almost 30 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

Meanwhile, there were 803 units for sale — the lowest number since the wild and wacky year of 2006 and about 50 per cent below the 10-year average.

The benchmark price rose to $402,600 — up seven per cent from the same time last year.

But building, finally, is also creeping up. Single-family starts were up 18 per cent to 127 from 108 last October, for example, while permits in the Saskatoon region leapt 163 per cent from 2023 to a value of $48.9 million. Multi-family permits jumped 61 per cent to $56 million.

Falling interest rates, some economic optimism, and signs of supportive policy are likely behind this improvement.

FEDERAL EFFECTS

For a policy example, the federal government removed GST on qualifying rental housing in mid-September; and love it or not, the Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) is starting to have an impact as well.

Should Pierre Poilievre become the next prime minister, we may see that fund toasted, although he is touting widespread GST elimination on new housing.

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MUNICIPAL THOUGHTS

It’s still vague to me whether Saskatoon’s new city council will more aggressively address the speed of housing development. Zoning, land sales and permitting are among the elements in the city’s jurisdiction.

The previous council did vote in HAF and its $41.3 million to accelerate building.

Expect a lot of necessary focus on homelessness and low-income housing; that said, every rung on the housing ladder affects all of the others.

PROVINCIAL PROMISES

The Sask. Party government implemented several recommendations from a coalition of housing industry groups to support building.

Although Saskatchewan lags most of the country in population growth, 14,000 newcomers arrived in Saskatoon in 2023 — so yes, we need the help.

“We were very, very happy,” said Chris Guérette, CEO of the Saskatchewan Realtors Association, adding that the group would be happy to work with any party on policy and noting that “when we’re strengthening our housing continuum, it’s not one thing.”

She pointed, for example, to extending the secondary suite incentive of 35 per cent. Suites are mortgage helpers while also adding housing units to the rental universe.

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“Municipalities’ permits have increased a lot already,” she said.

The home renovation tax credit was maintained, and advancing the national building code to Tier Three from Tier Two has been delayed a year (in line with most of Canada) to reduce builders’ costs.

The limited PST rebate has also been reinstated.

“There’s not a lot of inventory out there,” Guérette said. “But we have a lot of really good promises that were made in the last month, so we have to give those some time to work their magic.”

THE TRUMP FACTORS

The U.S. president-elect campaigned hard on rounding up, imprisoning and deporting millions of illegal immigrants. It appears that he will actually do this, which has led pundits to suggest terrified people will flow across the Canadian border.

One may be tempted to think this is an Ontario and Quebec issue, but Saskatchewan is already seeing a spike in asylum seekers. In 2023, we had about 170; in the first six months of 2024, 351. It may not be a large number, but in a tight housing market, it’s not insignificant.

I wanted to know if this could happen. We need to welcome immigrants, who are growing our province, but could we manage a small flood?

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Davida Bentham, a lawyer with Pro Bono Law Saskatchewan in Regina who works with asylum seekers, told me it would be difficult but possible.

“I see our Safe Third Country Agreement really preventing that,” she told me. “They can’t just come to a port of entry, whether regular or irregular.”

Coming over the border irregularly is “extremely strenuous,” she added. “They could, sure. We could have folks walking across the land border and hiding for 14 days. Possible. But it’s not easy.”

The agreement regulates asylum seekers crossing the Canadian-American border either way. It was modified in 2023 because of a loophole allowing irregular entry, causing “literally streams of them” crossing at Roxham Road from New York to Quebec.

Now, people must enter through regular ports and be in Canada for 14 days before claiming asylum.

“To me, it places these people at such vulnerability,” Bentham said. “The policy and laws are encouraging you to be underground.”

People can survive underground without status, but they don’t have access to health coverage and other services and are often forced to work under the table, she said.

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A sudden stress on the market due to another country’s policy may pale in comparison to a wider economic impact.

If Trump’s tariff plan comes in as promised, we are eventually looking at another round of inflation. We might be okay on oil and gas and the auto sector in Canada, but tariffs of 10 per cent and much higher in a global economy will drive prices up.

That is likely the much bigger threat to our housing market.

Joanne Paulson is a Saskatoon author and freelance journalist who has been covering real estate, off and on, for more than 25 years. Do you have a fascinating real estate story to share? Get in touch at [email protected].

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